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東京大学公共政策大学院 | GraSPP / Graduate School of Public Policy | The university of Tokyo

【Guest Speaker Seminar】”GLOBAL TRADE: WHAT’S BEHIND THE SLOWDOWN? (October 2016 WEO, Chapter 2)” by Mr. Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, International Monetary Fund October 11, 2016

Open to all GraSPP students!

As part of the IMF’s global outreach of October 2016 World Economic Outlook, we will have a guest lecture about the ongoing slowdown in global trade.

Title: GLOBAL TRADE: WHAT’S BEHIND THE SLOWDOWN? (October 2016 WEO, Chapter 2)

Trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This chapter finds that the overall weakness in economic activity, in particular in investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for up to three-fourths of the slowdown. However, other factors are also weighing on trade. The waning pace of trade liberalization and the recent uptick in protectionism are holding back trade growth, even though their quantitative impact thus far has been limited. The decline in the growth of global value chains has also played an important part in the observed slowdown. The findings suggest that addressing the general weakness in economic activity, especially in investment, will stimulate trade, which in turn could help strengthen productivity and growth. In addition, given the subdued global growth outlook, further trade reforms that lower barriers, coupled with measures to mitigate the cost to those who shoulder the burden of adjustment, would boost the international exchange of goods and services and revive the virtuous cycle of trade and growth.

Presenter: Mr. Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro (International Monetary Fund)

Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro is an economist at the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund. His experience at the IMF also includes working in the African Department and in the Fiscal Affairs Department. Prior to the IMF, he worked in different institutions such as the United Nations, the European Central Bank, the University of Amsterdam, CEPII and Sciences Po in Paris. He holds a M.Sc. from the Fundação Getulio Vargas (SP), and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, finance and development.

Date & Time: Tuesday, October 18th, 2016; 14:55-16:40

Place: S.Law 305

Language: English

 

 

Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
International Monetary Fund
Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro is an economist at the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund. His experience at the IMF also includes working in the African Department and in the Fiscal Affairs Department. Prior to the IMF, he worked in different institutions such as the United Nations, the European Central Bank, the University of Amsterdam, CEPII and Sciences Po in Paris. He holds a M.Sc. from the Fundação Getulio Vargas (SP), and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, finance and development.

CHAPTER 2. GLOBAL TRADE:WHAT’S BEHIND THE SLOWDOWN?
Trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This chapter finds that the overall weakness in economic activity, in particular in investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for up to three-fourths of the slowdown. However, other factors are also weighing on trade. The waning pace of trade liberalization and the recent uptick in protectionism are holding back trade growth, even though their quantitative impact thus far has been limited. The decline in the growth of global value chains has also played an important part in the observed slowdown. The findings suggest that addressing the general weakness in economic activity, especially in investment, will stimulate trade, which in turn could help strengthen productivity and growth. In addition, given the subdued global growth outlook, further trade reforms that lower barriers, coupled with measures to mitigate the cost to those who shoulder the burden of adjustment, would boost the international exchange of goods and services and revive the virtuous cycle of trade and growth.