Population Aging and the Generational Economy
Instructors
Naohiro OGAWA
Credits / Language / Semester
2Credits / English / Winter
Objectives/Overview
Population explosion was the central demographic problem of the 20th century, but population aging is likely to take that spot in the 21st century. In the first half of this course, we shall examine causes and consequences of fertility declines and mortality improvements that have occurred in the past 20 to 30 years by focusing primarily on socio-economic changes. In doing so we shall cover not only Japan but also other various countries, both developed and developing. In the second half of the course we shall quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of age structural changes induced by fertility and mortality transformations and also examine their micro-level influence on family finances. The method employed will be the National Transfer Accounts (NTA), which have recently been introduced in 42 countries of the world. These analyses will be conducted from the standpoint of formulating and implementing policies and will not rely solely on the results for Japan, but for other countries participating in the global NTA project as well.
Keywords
Labor income, public/private consumption, human capital, intergenerational and intragenerational transfers
Schedule
1 Population aging and the generational economy: A brief introduction
2 Economics of population growth
3 Theory of demographic transition
4 Economic theories of fertility
5 Demographic mechanism of population aging
6 Fertility transition of Japan and other Asian countries
7 Mortality transition of Japan and other Asian countries
8 Introduction to the system of National Transfer Accounts (1)
9 Introduction to the system of National Transfer Accounts (2)
10 Discussion of the term paper topics (1)
11 Discussion of the term paper topics (2)
12 The impact of changing age structures on intergenerational transfers
13 National Transfer Accounts and the cost of children
14 National Transfer Accounts and the cost of the elderly
15 National Transfer Accounts and policy options
Teaching Methods
For each topic, the instructor will make a power-point presentation, followed by discussions by students.
Grading
Depending on the number of students enrolled in this class, grade system of this course will be determined at the beginning of the semester from one or more of the followings: oral presentation, term paper, and written exam. All the assignments must be completed in English.
Required Textbooks
None.
Reference Books
Reading assignments will be given when necessary.
reference：http://www.ntaccounts.org
(1) Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason eds. (2011) Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective, Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar.
The electronic version of the book can be downloaded from the following website of International Development Research Centre (IDRC): http://www.idrc.ca/EN/Resources/Publications/Pages/IDRCBookDetails.aspx?PublicationID=987.
(2) Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations (2013) National Transfer Accounts Manual: Measuring and Analysing the Generational Economy, New York: United Nations.
The manual can be downloaded from the following website: http://www.ntaccounts.org/doc/repository/NTA%20manual%202013.pdf.