Politics of World Trade

Instructors

OSHIMA Shotaro/IWASAWA Yuji

Term / Language / Credits

S1S2 / English / 2

Objectives

TPP is now the talk of the town so far as trade policy is concerned.
Since the beginning of 2015, there is apparent optimism in many news reports about TPP. The hope seems to be it could be concluded before the summer, if not this spring.
TPP, as it is well known, stands for the Trans Pacific Partnership, which is an economic partnership agreement now being negotiated by Japan and 11 other nations around the rim of the Pacific.

This course, being offered at a very timely moment, will take advantage of the unfolding “drama” and will follow closely the actual negotiation and will try to grasp what are the major issues being negotiated in its final stage.

In understanding the significance of TPP, the negotiation should be put in the overall context of the rules-based multilateral trading system, as embodied in the WTO, which has been contributing immensely to the growth of global economy since the Second World War.
It is also noted that today, there is proliferation of FTAs around the world. TPP and its counterpart negotiation between the US and the EU, or the T-TIP (Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) agreement negotiation, are two of the largest FTAs, or of the so-called MEGA FTAs.

The class will look into the current situation of the WTO Doha Round negotiations and see also the relationship between the Doha Round and the spread of FTA/RTA agreements around the world.

Keywords

World Trade, TTP, WTO, TTIP, FTAs, Doha Round

Schedule

PART ONE: INTRODUCTION

April 9 Session 1: Introduction to “Politics of World Trade”

April 16 Session 2: LECTURE “GLOBAL TRADE AND MULTILATERAL TRADING SYSTEM”

April 23 Session 3: LECTURE “OVERVIEW OF THE CURRENT INTERNATIONAL TRADE POLICY ISSUES”;

April 30 Session 4: LECTURE; BASICS OF THE RULES BASED TRADING SYSTEM; MFN AND NT PRINCIPLES; DISPUTE SETTLEMENT PROCESS

PART TWO: TRADE RELATED DOMESTIC POLITICS:

(Each “trade representative” will report on his/her respective country’s trade related economic structure (e.g. describe its interest groups), domestic politics relevant to trade policy: 7 minutes each)

May 14 Session 5:
LECTURE: Goods Agreements
REPORTING; ① AUSTRALIA*, ② CANADA*, ③ CHILE*, ④ CHINA, ⑤ EU, ⑥ INDIA, ⑦ INDONESIA, ⑧ JAPAN

May 21 Session 6:
LECTURE: Protectionism and Trade Remedies
REPORTING; ⑨ KOREA, ⑩ MALAYSIA*, ⑪ MEXICO* ⑫ PHILIPPINES, ⑬ SINGAPORE*, ⑭ THAILAND, ⑮ US* ⑯ VIETNAM*

PART THREE: TRADE FRAMEWORK ISSUES (WTO/DDA, FTAs, TTP/TTIP/RCEP)
(Country representatives will report on trade policy strategy. 12 min. each)

May 28 Session 7:
LECTURE; Regulatory Measures (TBT and SPS)
COUNTRY REPORTS: AUSTRALIA*, CANADA*, CHILE*, CHINA, EU, INDIA,

June 4 Session 8:
LECTURE; GATS, TRIPs, Labor, Environment,
COUNTRY REPORTS: INDONESIA, JAPAN*, KOREA, MALAYSIA*, MEXICO

June 11 Session 9:
LECTURE: INVESTMENT, ISDS, INTERNET
REPORTING: PHILIPPINES, SINGAPORE*, THAILAND, US*, VIETNAM*

PART FOUR: TPP;
(Country representatives will report on government’s position in (or on) TPP negotiations, 10 min each)

June 18 Session 10:
REPORTING: AUSTRALIA*, CANADA*, CHILE*, CHINA, EU, INDIA, INDONESIA, JAPAN*

June 25 Session 11:
REPORTING: KOREA, MALAYSIA*, MEXICO, PHILIPPINES, SINGAPORE*, THAILAND, US*, VIETNAM*

PART FIVE: MOCK NEGOTIATION
July 2 Session 12: Preparatory Meeting
ELECT or SELECT Chairperson for Mock Negotiation
AGENDA Setting

July 9 Session 13: MOCK NEGOTIATION

July 16 Session 14: POST MORTEM

Teaching Methods

The course is a seminar with reporting by and discussions among the students. Role-playing method will be used and students will be assigned to major members of TPP negotiation as well as those major trading partners outside TPP who have significant stake in the outcome of TPP.
The class will engage in interactive discussions issues related to TTP and to the multilateral trading system in general.
During the penultimate session, class will engage in “Mock (Green Room type) TPP/ major trade partners negotiations.”

The following list comprises the countries to be assigned:
AUSTRALIA*, CANADA*, CHILE*, CHINA, EU, INDIA, INDONESIA, JAPAN*, KOREA, MALAYSIA*, MEXICO*, PHILIPPINES, SINGAPORE*, THAILAND, US*, VIETNAM* (* indicates TPP members, others are those having major stake in TPP)
(A major caveat is that a student cannot represent his/her country of citizenship.)

Grading

At the end of the course, students shall hand in a TERM PAPER (of about 10 pages) in which they will predict the international trade scene in 2025, focused around TPP.

To be more specific, the paper should foretell the prospects of;
1) Impact of the TPP on other Asia-Pacific “Mega-FTAs”
2) Future of the multilateral trade (and investment) liberalization negotiations, most importantly the Doha Round.

This exercise of “predicting” is essentially a matter of making an “educated guess” which would require one to “educate” oneself in order to make a more realistic “guess.”

Grading
1) term paper 50%
2) reports in class 40%
3) participation in class discussions and commitment to learning 10%

Required Textbook

Hoekman, Bernard M., & Kostecki, Michel M.: The Political Economy of the World Trading System – The WTO and Beyond (Third Edition); Oxford

Acemogul, Daron & Robinson, James: Why Nations Fail; Crown Publishing 2013

Ikenberry, G. John: After Victory; Princeton

Reference Books

Jackson, John H.: The World Trading System (Second Edition); MIT Press 

Baldwin, Richard, and Low, Patrick (edited): Multilateralizing Regionalism, Challenges for the Global Trading System; Cambridge

Munakata, Naoko: Transforming East Asia; The Evolution or Regional Economic Integration; Brookings/RIETI

Blustein, Paul: Misadventures of the Most Favored Nations: Clashing Egos, Inflated Ambitions, and the Great Shambles of the World Trade System; Public Affairs 2009

Multitude of references accessible at the WTO HP, and for individual member’s information, much can be obtained from official HP’s

Notes on Taking the Course

Must be able to take active part in discussions in clasee and write a solid term paper in English.

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