GraSPP Research Seminar
This presentation introduces a strategic framework to understand the causes of proliferation, and the effectiveness of counterproliferation tools, placing Northeast Asia in comparative perspective. Acquiring nuclear weapons takes time and effort. Before a nuclear-weapons program comes to fruition, adversaries and allies may offer threats and assurances to prevent proliferation. The stronger is a potential proliferator, the more likely it is to succeed in its attempt to acquire nuclear weapons. Threats are most effective against weak potential proliferators, and assurances are most expedient when offered to strong potential proliferators. In Northeast Asia, threats of preventive war have been ineffective in preventing North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons, given its ability to inflict severe damage on Seoul. Assurances have been crucial in getting South Korea and Japan to forgo nuclear weapons. Looking ahead, a coercive approach toward North Korea is unlikely to be effective, and questions about assurances offered to South Korea and Japan risk spurring their proliferation.
日時: 2018年12月19日（水）12:45-14:15
場所: 国際学術総合研究棟4F SMBCアカデミアホール MAP
講演者: Alexandre Debs 准教授 (イエール大学政治学部）
コメンテーター: 栗崎 周平 准教授 (早稲田大学政治経済学術院）
モデレーター: 樋渡 展洋 教授 (東京大学社会科学研究所）
言語: 英語
定員: 80名
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主催:
東京大学政策ビジョン研究センター安全保障研究ユニット
イェール大学・ウイットニ―＆ベッティ・マクラミラン国際地域研究所／東大友の会（FUTI）
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