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東京大学公共政策大学院 | GraSPP / Graduate School of Public Policy | The university of Tokyo

福元 健太郎 FUKUMOTO, Kentaro

教授 / Professor 福元 健太郎FUKUMOTO, Kentaro

FUKUMOTO, Kentaro/福元 健太郎

Courses in AY 2024

  • 5122231 政治分析方法論Ⅰ
  • 5122232 政治分析方法論Ⅱ
  • 5122233 政治分析方法論演習
  • 5122234 政治分析方法論研究

Education & Employment


Research Fields


Major Publications

福元健太郎. 2007.『立法の制度と過程』木鐸社
福元健太郎. 2000.『日本の国会政治 全政府立法の分析』東京大学出版会
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2024. "Normal Mode Copulas for Nonmonotonic Dependence." Political Analysis. publised online.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Kyosuke Kikuta. 2024. "After a Storm Come Votes: Identifying the Effects of Disaster Relief on Electoral Outcomes." Political Behavior. publised online.
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2023. "What if neither randomized control trials nor public voting records are available in a get-out-the-vote field experiment?" Research & Politics 10(4).
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Takahiro Tabuchi. 2023. "The rally ‘round the flag effect in third parties: the case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. publised online.
Yoneoka, Daisuke, Akifumi Eguchi, Kentaro Fukumoto, Takayuki Kawashima, Yuta Tanoue, Takahiro Tabuchi, Hiroaki Miyata, Cyrus Ghaznavi, Kenji Shibuya, and Shuhei Nomura. 2022. "Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games on COVID-19 Incidence in Japan: A Synthetic Control Approach." BMJ Open 12(9):e061444.
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2022. "Nonignorable Attrition in Pairwise Randomized Experiments." Political Analysis 30(1), 132-141.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, Charles T. McClean, and Kuninori Nakagawa. 2021. "No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020." Nature Medicine 27 (12): 2111-2119.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, Yusaku Horiuchi, and Shoichiro Tanaka. 2020. "Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment on Political Budget Cycles." Electoral Studies 67: 102206.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, Andreas Beger, and Will H. Moore. 2019. "Bayesian Modeling for Overdispersed Event-Count Time Series." Behaviormetrika 46 (2): 435-452.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Hirofumi Miwa. 2018. "Share the Name, Share the Vote: A Natural Experiment of Name Recognition." Journal of Politics 80 (2): 726-730.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Yusaku Horiuchi. 2016. "Identifying the Effect of Mobilization on Voter Turnout through a Natural Experiment." Electoral Studies 44: 192-202.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Akitaka Matsuo. 2015. "The Effects of Election Proximity on Participatory Shirking: The Staggered-Term Chamber as a Laboratory." Legislative Studies Quarterly 40 (4): 599-625.
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2015. "What Happens Depends on When It Happens: Copula-based Ordered Event History Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome." Journal of American Statistical Association 110 (509): 83-92.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Mikitaka Masuyama. 2015. "Measuring Judicial Independence Reconsidered: Survival Analysis, Matching, and Average Treatment Effects" Japanese Journal of Political Science 16 (1): 33-51.
Fukumoto, Kentaro (Guest Editor). 2015. "Introduction to Special Issue: Who Does or Does Not Respond to Whom or What in a Democracy? The Case of Japan" Japanese Journal of Political Science 16 (1): 1-4.
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Yusaku Horiuchi. 2011. "Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment." American Political Science Review 105 (3): 586-603.
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2009. "Systematically Dependent Competing Risks and Strategic Retirement." American Journal of Political Science 53 (3): 740-759.
Fukumoto, Kentaro. 2008. "Legislative Production in Comparative Perspective: Cross Sectional Study of 42 Countries and Time-Series Analysis of the Japan Case." Japanese Journal of Political Science 9 (1): 1-19.